Research Weekly - What the Market Implies About Spot ETF AUM

The price appreciation experienced since BlackRock’s initial filings implies the market expects nearly $18B in incremental AUM across spot ETFs. This is an expected value exercise and some probability of a denial, and therefore zero spot ETF AUM, should come into play. Price Positive CorrelationThe final caveat that comes to mind (we sure there are more) is reflexivity between price and spot ETF AUM. On the reflexivity aspect, the potential for a spot ETF drives prices up, which then drives up potential AUM (demand for spot), which therefore drives up spot prices further. We saw the SEC take numerous actions (delaying all spot bitcoin ETF decisions) ahead of the potential shutdown on Oct 1.