Are We There Yet?

September 12, 2023

Real yield is a fairly amorphous concept, and depending on who you ask, you might get a handful of different definitions. Real Yield = Government Bond Yield – Nominal GDP GrowthThis financial repression playbook only works if money cannot leave the banking system. If you replace the 2-year yield with the 10-year or 30-year yield, real rates are still negative. Nowcast Real GDP of 5.7% + Real GDP Deflator of 3.7% = Nominal 3Q GDP Growth of 9.4%Forecasted Third Quarter Real Yield = 2-year US Treasury Yield 5% – Nominal 3Q GDP Growth of 9.4% = -4.4% Real YieldWhat the actual fuck!!!! If more spending = higher deficit, and more spending also = higher nominal GDP growth, then ipso facto, higher deficit = higher nominal GDP growth.

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